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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
5/3/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Group - 3Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa42%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.51
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.31

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 112 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.58
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.55
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
67%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
75%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
58%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
78%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
44%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
19%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
56%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
42%
level
25%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
33%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3-1 in Liga Leumit on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.