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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
10/14/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 8Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa41%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.54
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.38

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 111 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.58
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.21

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.55
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.49

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
66%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
75%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
59%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
20%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
79%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
45%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
20%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
55%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.49 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.21 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
41%
level
25%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
34%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2–4 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 4-2 in Liga Leumit on October 14, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.