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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
2/6/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 20Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa38%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Kfar Saba37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.43
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 95 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.58
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.55
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
63%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Kfar Saba
75%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
62%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
76%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
42%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
51%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
38%
level
25%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
37%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and Hapoel Kfar Saba drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.