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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
AET
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
11/24/2020State CupState Cup · 2nd RoundMoshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa22%
×Draw23%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.05
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.77

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
0.60
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.33

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
2.20
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.50

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
46%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
77%
Draw or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
78%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
8%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
65%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
28%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
9%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
83%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
53%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
29%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 0.60 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.33 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
22%
level
23%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
54%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3-2 in State Cup on November 24, 2020.

The match was played at Moshava Training Field in Petach-Tikva.