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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — League #496 2026

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1/21/2022League #496League #496 · South - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden25%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.09
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.65

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
0.89
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.79
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.30

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
50%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
75%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
75%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
10%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
10%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
81%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
49%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
33%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 0.89 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.50 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
25%
level
25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
50%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa beat Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 4-1 in League #496 on January 21, 2022.