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Maccabi Ironi Sderot vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Ironi Sderot
Maccabi Ironi Sderot
FT
3 – 0
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
9/27/2019State CupState Cup · 4th RoundSderot Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Sderot66%
×Draw19%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Sderot
2.33
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.04

Maccabi Ironi Sderot creates 124% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Sderot
2.67
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.75

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Sderot
0.33
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
2.00

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Sderot+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Sderot ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Sderot or draw
84%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
81%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
34%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Sderot wins by 2+
43%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Sderot 1+ goals
90%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot 2+ goals
67%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot 3+ goals
41%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1+ goals
65%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2+ goals
28%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Sderot (draw refunded)
81%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Sderot at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Sderot attack 2.67 + Maccabi Kiryat Malachi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi attack 1.75 + Maccabi Ironi Sderot defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Maccabi Ironi Sderot scores more
66%
level
19%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi scores more
16%

Maccabi Ironi Sderot at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Sderot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Ironi Sderot 3–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Maccabi Ironi Sderot beat Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3-0 in State Cup on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sderot Municipal Stadium in Sderot.