Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3–2 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

3 – 2

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

2/6/2024

State Cup · 4th Round (Liga Bet)Sportek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT51%

×Draw20%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PTExpected goals in this matchHapoel Mahane Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.67

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

2.27

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

1.67

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.67

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

2.67

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

2.00

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

1.33

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT ↓

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or draw

71%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

80%

Draw or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

49%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+

31%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals

90%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals

66%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals

39%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals

50%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)

64%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 2.67 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.27

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 2.00 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more

51%

level

20%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more

29%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff