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Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT vs Hapoel Lod — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
FT
0 – 4
Hapoel Lod
Hapoel Lod
9/5/2022State CupState Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Sportek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT59%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Lod22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
2.33
Hapoel Lod
1.36

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
2.67
Hapoel Lod
1.40

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
1.33
Hapoel Lod
2.00

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par
Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT ↓

Hapoel Lod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or draw
78%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or Hapoel Lod
80%
Draw or Hapoel Lod
41%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+
37%
Hapoel Lod wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals
90%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals
67%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals
41%
Hapoel Lod 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Lod 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Lod 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)
73%
Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Hapoel Lod away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 2.67 + Hapoel Lod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hapoel Lod attack 1.40 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more
59%
level
20%
Hapoel Lod scores more
22%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT vs Hapoel Lod

Hapoel Lod beat Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 4-0 in State Cup on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportek Stadium in Petach-Tikva.