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Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
FT
3 – 1
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
9/18/2023State CupState Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Sportek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT49%
×Draw22%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
2.00
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
1.50

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
2.67
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
1.67

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
1.33
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
1.33

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par
HaMakhtesh Givatayim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT ↓

HaMakhtesh Givatayim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or draw
71%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or HaMakhtesh Givatayim
78%
Draw or HaMakhtesh Givatayim
51%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+
28%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals
86%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals
59%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals
32%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim 1+ goals
78%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim 2+ goals
44%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)
63%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

HaMakhtesh Givatayim away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 2.67 + HaMakhtesh Givatayim defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

HaMakhtesh Givatayim attack 1.67 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more
49%
level
22%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim scores more
29%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT beat HaMakhtesh Givatayim 3-1 in State Cup on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportek Stadium in Petach-Tikva.