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Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT vs Hakoah Ramat Gan — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
FT
4 – 1
Hakoah Ramat Gan
Hakoah Ramat Gan
8/30/2022State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Sportek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT67%
×Draw17%
Hakoah Ramat Gan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
2.58
Hakoah Ramat Gan
1.17

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT creates 121% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
2.67
Hakoah Ramat Gan
1.00

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
1.33
Hakoah Ramat Gan
2.50

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par
Hakoah Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT ↓

Hakoah Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or draw
84%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT or Hakoah Ramat Gan
83%
Draw or Hakoah Ramat Gan
33%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+
46%
Hakoah Ramat Gan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals
92%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals
72%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals
47%
Hakoah Ramat Gan 1+ goals
69%
Hakoah Ramat Gan 2+ goals
33%
Hakoah Ramat Gan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)
81%
Hakoah Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Hakoah Ramat Gan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 2.67 + Hakoah Ramat Gan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Hakoah Ramat Gan attack 1.00 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more
67%
level
17%
Hakoah Ramat Gan scores more
16%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 4–1 Hakoah Ramat Gan

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT beat Hakoah Ramat Gan 4-1 in State Cup on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportek Stadium in Petach-Tikva.