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Maccabi Herzliya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4/8/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 29Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya26%
×Draw26%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.48

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 48% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 18 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.45
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
52%
Maccabi Herzliya or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
74%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
74%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
9%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
63%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
26%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
8%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
43%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
35%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
26%
level
26%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
48%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Herzliya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Maccabi Herzliya 2-0 in Liga Leumit on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.