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Maccabi Herzliya vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
12/7/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 11Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya55%
×Draw21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
2.06
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.28

Maccabi Herzliya creates 61% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.33
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.45
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
76%
Maccabi Herzliya or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
79%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
45%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
33%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
87%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
61%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
34%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
72%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
37%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
70%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
55%
level
21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
24%

Maccabi Herzliya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Herzliya vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Maccabi Herzliya beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2-1 in Liga Leumit on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.