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Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Lod — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Lod
Hapoel Lod
12/1/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundGrundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya49%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Lod26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
1.65
Hapoel Lod
1.13

Maccabi Herzliya creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.29
Hapoel Lod
1.40

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
0.86
Hapoel Lod
2.00

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Hapoel Lod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
74%
Maccabi Herzliya or Hapoel Lod
76%
Draw or Hapoel Lod
51%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
26%
Hapoel Lod wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
81%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
49%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
23%
Hapoel Lod 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Lod 2+ goals
31%
Hapoel Lod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
65%
Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Hapoel Lod away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.29 + Hapoel Lod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hapoel Lod attack 1.40 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
49%
level
24%
Hapoel Lod scores more
26%

Maccabi Herzliya at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Lod

Maccabi Herzliya beat Hapoel Lod 2-0 in State Cup on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.