Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Acre — Liga Leumit 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Maccabi Herzliya41%
Hapoel Acre32%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Herzliya creates 16% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maccabi Herzliya ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches
Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.52 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39
Hapoel Acre attack 1.10 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Maccabi Herzliya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat GanMaccabi Herzliya
Bnei Yehuda
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Kiryat Yam SC
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Afula
Kafr QasimHapoel Acre
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Maccabi Herzliya host Hapoel Acre on Monday, 17 March 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2025/2026 season.
Liga Leumit: Maccabi Herzliya 0–2 Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre beat Maccabi Herzliya 2-0 in Liga Leumit on March 17, 2025.
Goals: I. Barnes (51', 82').
The match was played at Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.