Maccabi Herzliya 1–4 Hapoel Acre: Result & Stats

Maccabi Herzliya

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Hapoel Acre

2/2/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 19Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya37%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Acre36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HerzliyaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Acre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.26

Maccabi Herzliya

1.28

Hapoel Acre

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 130 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

1.45

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.33

Hapoel Acre

1.07

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya

1.45

Hapoel Acre

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Hapoel Acre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw

64%

Maccabi Herzliya or Hapoel Acre

73%

Draw or Hapoel Acre

63%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

16%

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

72%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

37%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

51%

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

37%

level

27%

Hapoel Acre scores more

36%

Maccabi Herzliya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Maccabi Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff