Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1/14/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 16Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Maccabi Haifa60%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Petah Tikva18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Haifa
1.89
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.93

Maccabi Haifa creates 103% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 68 away

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa
2.20
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa
0.92
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.57

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw
82%
Maccabi Haifa or Maccabi Petah Tikva
78%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
40%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
35%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
85%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
56%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
29%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
61%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
24%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
77%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.89

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more
60%
level
22%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
18%

Maccabi Haifa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Haifa 5–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Maccabi Haifa beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 5-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.