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Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Netanya — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
1/14/2025State CupState Cup · Round of 16Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Maccabi Haifa32%
×Draw24%
Maccabi Netanya44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Haifa
1.37
Maccabi Netanya
1.65

Maccabi Netanya creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa
2.36
Maccabi Netanya
2.50

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa
0.79
Maccabi Netanya
0.38

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par
Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Maccabi Netanya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw
56%
Maccabi Haifa or Maccabi Netanya
76%
Draw or Maccabi Netanya
68%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
14%
Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
75%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
40%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
16%
Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
81%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
49%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
42%
Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.36 + Maccabi Netanya defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Maccabi Netanya attack 2.50 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more
32%
level
24%
Maccabi Netanya scores more
44%

Maccabi Netanya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Netanya

Maccabi Haifa beat Maccabi Netanya 1-0 in State Cup on January 14, 2025.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.