Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Netanya — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
1/21/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 18Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Maccabi Haifa57%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Netanya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Haifa
1.91
Maccabi Netanya
1.08

Maccabi Haifa creates 77% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 118 away

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa
2.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa
0.92
Maccabi Netanya
1.61

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par
Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Maccabi Netanya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw
79%
Maccabi Haifa or Maccabi Netanya
78%
Draw or Maccabi Netanya
43%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
33%
Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
85%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
57%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
30%
Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
66%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
29%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
73%
Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more
57%
level
22%
Maccabi Netanya scores more
21%

Maccabi Haifa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Haifa 4–0 Maccabi Netanya

Maccabi Haifa beat Maccabi Netanya 4-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.