Maccabi Haifa 3–0 Hapoel Kfar Saba: Result & Stats

Maccabi Haifa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1/31/2021

Ligat Ha'al · Round 18Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Maccabi Haifa59%

×Draw23%

Hapoel Kfar Saba18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HaifaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Saba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.90

Maccabi Haifa

1.83

Hapoel Kfar Saba

0.90

Maccabi Haifa creates 103% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 34 away

2.20

creates per match

0.88

0.92

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa

2.20

Hapoel Kfar Saba

0.88

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa

0.92

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw

82%

Maccabi Haifa or Hapoel Kfar Saba

77%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba

41%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+

34%

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals

84%

Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals

54%

Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals

28%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

59%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

23%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)

77%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 0.88 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more

59%

level

23%

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

18%

Maccabi Haifa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff