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Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
5/3/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Championship Round - 7Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Maccabi Haifa56%
×Draw23%
Hapoel Haifa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Haifa
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
0.99

Maccabi Haifa creates 79% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 117 away

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa
2.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.06

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa
0.92
Hapoel Haifa
1.34

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par
Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Hapoel Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw
79%
Maccabi Haifa or Hapoel Haifa
77%
Draw or Hapoel Haifa
44%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
31%
Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
53%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
26%
Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
73%
Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Hapoel Haifa away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.06 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more
56%
level
23%
Hapoel Haifa scores more
21%

Maccabi Haifa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Haifa

Hapoel Haifa beat Maccabi Haifa 5-1 in Ligat Ha'al on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.