Maccabi Bnei Raina 3–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Maccabi Bnei Raina

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Maccabi Petah Tikva

12/9/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 8Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina35%

×Draw27%

Maccabi Petah Tikva38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Bnei RainaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.32

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.25

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

0.94

creates per match

0.94

1.70

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

0.94

Maccabi Petah Tikva

0.94

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.70

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw

62%

Maccabi Bnei Raina or Maccabi Petah Tikva

73%

Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva

65%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

15%

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

71%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

13%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

73%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

38%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

48%

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.70 · 67 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 0.94 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

35%

level

27%

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

38%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff