Maccabi Bnei Raina 0–4 Maccabi Netanya

Maccabi Bnei Raina

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Maccabi Netanya

2/14/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Round 23Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina33%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Netanya42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Bnei RainaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Netanya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.48

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.27

Maccabi Netanya

1.48

Maccabi Netanya creates 17% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 118 away

0.94

creates per match

1.25

1.70

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

0.94

Maccabi Netanya

1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.70

Maccabi Netanya

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Maccabi Netanya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw

58%

Maccabi Bnei Raina or Maccabi Netanya

75%

Draw or Maccabi Netanya

67%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

14%

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

72%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

14%

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

77%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

43%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

44%

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.70 · 67 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 0.94 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

33%

level

25%

Maccabi Netanya scores more

42%

Maccabi Netanya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff