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Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Katamon — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
12/23/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 11Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina32%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Katamon41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.13
Hapoel Katamon
1.32

Hapoel Katamon creates 17% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 84 away

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.94
Hapoel Katamon
0.95

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.70
Hapoel Katamon
1.31

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par
Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Hapoel Katamon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw
59%
Maccabi Bnei Raina or Hapoel Katamon
73%
Draw or Hapoel Katamon
68%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
31%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
44%
Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.70 · 67 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 0.94 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
32%
level
27%
Hapoel Katamon scores more
41%

Hapoel Katamon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Katamon

Maccabi Bnei Raina and Hapoel Katamon drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.