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Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
12/2/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 12Teddy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Katamon41%
×Draw28%
Maccabi Bnei Raina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.27
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.08

Hapoel Katamon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.01

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.15
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.41

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
69%
Hapoel Katamon or Maccabi Bnei Raina
72%
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
18%
Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
66%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
29%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
56%
Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
41%
level
28%
Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
31%

Hapoel Katamon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Katamon 1–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina

Maccabi Bnei Raina beat Hapoel Katamon 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 2, 2025.

The match was played at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem.