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Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
FT
0 – 2
Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
N. Gissin 88'
A. Milad 59'
12/15/2020State CupState Cup · 3rd RoundKfar Kana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina21%
×Draw22%
Agudat Sport Ashdod57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.11
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.94

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 75% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.22
Agudat Sport Ashdod
2.00

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.89
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.00

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par
Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw
43%
Maccabi Bnei Raina or Agudat Sport Ashdod
78%
Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod
79%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
8%
Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
67%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
30%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
10%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
86%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
58%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
28%
Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.22 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 2.00 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
21%
level
22%
Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
57%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
A. Milad
88'
N. Gissin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Bnei Raina 0–2 Agudat Sport Ashdod

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Maccabi Bnei Raina 2-0 in State Cup on December 15, 2020.

Goals: A. Milad (59'), N. Gissin (88').

The match was played at Kfar Kana Stadium in Kfar Kana.