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Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Ashkelon — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Ashkelon
Hapoel Ashkelon
6/29/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth40%
×Draw31%
Hapoel Ashkelon30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.08
Hapoel Ashkelon
0.89

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 6 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Hapoel Ashkelon
0.67

allows per match

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.11
Hapoel Ashkelon
0.83

finishing

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth+0.00on par
Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth ↓

Hapoel Ashkelon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or draw
70%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or Hapoel Ashkelon
69%
Draw or Hapoel Ashkelon
60%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1+ goals
66%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2+ goals
29%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3+ goals
10%
Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals
59%
Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals
22%
Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (draw refunded)
57%
Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 65 matches

Hapoel Ashkelon away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth attack 1.34 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 0.67 + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth scores more
40%
level
31%
Hapoel Ashkelon scores more
30%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Ahi Nazareth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2–0 Hapoel Ashkelon

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth beat Hapoel Ashkelon 2-0 in Liga Leumit on June 29, 2020.