Macarthur 2–1 Wofoo Tai Po: Result & Stats

Macarthur

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wofoo Tai Po

11/27/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Campbelltown Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Macarthur79%

×Draw13%

Wofoo Tai Po8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacarthurExpected goals in this matchWofoo Tai Po

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.80

Macarthur

2.88

Wofoo Tai Po

0.80

Macarthur creates 260% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

3.63

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Macarthur

3.63

Wofoo Tai Po

0.86

allows per match

Macarthur

0.75

Wofoo Tai Po

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par

Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Wofoo Tai Po →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw

92%

Macarthur or Wofoo Tai Po

87%

Draw or Wofoo Tai Po

21%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+

59%

Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals

94%

Macarthur 2+ goals

78%

Macarthur 3+ goals

54%

Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals

55%

Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals

19%

Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)

91%

Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Wofoo Tai Po away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 3.63 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.88

Wofoo Tai Po attack 0.86 + Macarthur defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Macarthur scores more

79%

level

13%

Wofoo Tai Po scores more

8%

Macarthur at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff