Macarthur 4–3 Western Sydney Wanderers

Macarthur

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Western Sydney Wanderers

2/4/2024

A-League · Round 15Campbelltown Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Macarthur40%

×Draw23%

Western Sydney Wanderers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacarthurExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.57

Macarthur

1.67

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 105 away

1.57

creates per match

1.51

1.63

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Macarthur

1.57

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.51

allows per match

Macarthur

1.63

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw

64%

Macarthur or Western Sydney Wanderers

77%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

60%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+

21%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals

81%

Macarthur 2+ goals

50%

Macarthur 3+ goals

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

79%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

46%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)

53%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 1.57 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Macarthur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Macarthur scores more

40%

level

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

36%

Macarthur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff