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Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League 2018

Macarthur
Macarthur
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
1/20/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 15Campbelltown Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Macarthur42%
×Draw24%
Wellington Phoenix34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur
1.65
Wellington Phoenix
1.46

Macarthur creates 13% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 109 away

creates per match

Macarthur
1.57
Wellington Phoenix
1.29

allows per match

Macarthur
1.63
Wellington Phoenix
1.73

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw
66%
Macarthur or Wellington Phoenix
76%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
58%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+
22%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals
81%
Macarthur 2+ goals
49%
Macarthur 3+ goals
23%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
77%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
43%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)
55%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 1.57 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Macarthur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Macarthur scores more
42%
level
24%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
34%

Macarthur at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix beat Macarthur 2-1 in A-League on January 20, 2025.

The match was played at Campbelltown Sports Stadium in Sydney.