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Macarthur vs Sabah FA — AFC Cup 2018

Macarthur
Macarthuradvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
2/13/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Macarthur57%
×Draw18%
Sabah FA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur
2.69
Sabah FA
1.75

Macarthur creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Macarthur
3.63
Sabah FA
2.75

allows per match

Macarthur
0.75
Sabah FA
1.75

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw
75%
Macarthur or Sabah FA
82%
Draw or Sabah FA
43%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+
37%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals
93%
Macarthur 2+ goals
74%
Macarthur 3+ goals
49%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
83%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
52%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)
70%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 3.63 + Sabah FA defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.69

Sabah FA attack 2.75 + Macarthur defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Macarthur scores more
57%
level
18%
Sabah FA scores more
25%

Macarthur at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Macarthur 3–0 Sabah FA

Macarthur beat Sabah FA 3-0 in AFC Cup on February 13, 2024.