Macarthur Rams 0–1 SD Raiders: Result & Stats

Macarthur Rams

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SD Raiders

2/22/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Lynwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Macarthur Rams35%

×Draw24%

SD Raiders40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Macarthur RamsExpected goals in this matchSD Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.54

Macarthur Rams

1.42

SD Raiders

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 65 away

1.26

creates per match

1.62

1.47

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Macarthur Rams

1.26

SD Raiders

1.62

allows per match

Macarthur Rams

1.47

SD Raiders

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par

SD Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur Rams ↓

SD Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Macarthur Rams or draw

60%

Macarthur Rams or SD Raiders

76%

Draw or SD Raiders

65%

Winning margin

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+

16%

SD Raiders wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals

76%

Macarthur Rams 2+ goals

41%

Macarthur Rams 3+ goals

17%

SD Raiders 1+ goals

79%

SD Raiders 2+ goals

45%

SD Raiders 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)

47%

SD Raiders (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur Rams at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

SD Raiders away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.58 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur Rams attack 1.26 + SD Raiders defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

SD Raiders attack 1.62 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Macarthur Rams scores more

35%

level

24%

SD Raiders scores more

40%

SD Raiders at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff