Macarthur Rams 1–0 Mounties Wanderers

Macarthur Rams

FT

1 – 0

Mounties Wanderers

7/22/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 25Lynwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Macarthur Rams45%

×Draw24%

Mounties Wanderers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Macarthur RamsExpected goals in this matchMounties Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.35

Macarthur Rams

1.67

Mounties Wanderers

1.35

Macarthur Rams creates 24% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 50 away

1.26

creates per match

1.24

1.47

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Macarthur Rams

1.26

Mounties Wanderers

1.24

allows per match

Macarthur Rams

1.47

Mounties Wanderers

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur Rams ↓

Mounties Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Macarthur Rams or draw

69%

Macarthur Rams or Mounties Wanderers

76%

Draw or Mounties Wanderers

55%

Winning margin

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+

23%

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals

81%

Macarthur Rams 2+ goals

50%

Macarthur Rams 3+ goals

23%

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

74%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

39%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)

59%

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur Rams at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur Rams attack 1.26 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Macarthur Rams scores more

45%

level

24%

Mounties Wanderers scores more

31%

Macarthur Rams at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Macarthur Rams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff