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Macarthur Rams vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams
FT
0 – 2
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
3/2/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Lynwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Macarthur Rams37%
×Draw24%
Hakoah Sydney City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur Rams
1.49
Hakoah Sydney City
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 75 away

creates per match

Macarthur Rams
1.26
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

Macarthur Rams
1.47
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur Rams ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Macarthur Rams or draw
61%
Macarthur Rams or Hakoah Sydney City
76%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
63%

Winning margin

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+
17%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals
77%
Macarthur Rams 2+ goals
44%
Macarthur Rams 3+ goals
19%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
79%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
46%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)
48%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur Rams at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur Rams attack 1.26 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.49

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Macarthur Rams scores more
37%
level
24%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
39%

Hakoah Sydney City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Macarthur Rams 0–2 Hakoah Sydney City

Hakoah Sydney City beat Macarthur Rams 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Lynwood Park in St Helens Park.