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Macarthur Rams vs Dulwich Hill — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
4/25/2026New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Macarthur Rams46%
×Draw23%
Dulwich Hill31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur Rams
1.75
Dulwich Hill
1.39

Macarthur Rams creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

creates per match

Macarthur Rams
1.26
Dulwich Hill
1.30

allows per match

Macarthur Rams
1.47
Dulwich Hill
2.23

finishing

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par
Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur Rams ↓

Dulwich Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Macarthur Rams or draw
69%
Macarthur Rams or Dulwich Hill
77%
Draw or Dulwich Hill
54%

Winning margin

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+
25%
Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals
83%
Macarthur Rams 2+ goals
52%
Macarthur Rams 3+ goals
25%
Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
75%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
40%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)
60%
Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur Rams at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Dulwich Hill away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur Rams attack 1.26 + Dulwich Hill defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dulwich Hill attack 1.30 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Macarthur Rams scores more
46%
level
23%
Dulwich Hill scores more
31%

Macarthur Rams at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Macarthur Rams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macarthur Rams 0 – 2 Dulwich Hill

Dulwich Hill beat Macarthur Rams 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 25, 2026.