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Macarthur Rams vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
E. Gonzalez 24'
J. Dunn 2'
6/21/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20Lynwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Macarthur Rams43%
×Draw24%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur Rams
1.62
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.39

Macarthur Rams creates 17% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

creates per match

Macarthur Rams
1.26
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Macarthur Rams
1.47
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur Rams ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Macarthur Rams or draw
67%
Macarthur Rams or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
76%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
57%

Winning margin

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+
22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals
80%
Macarthur Rams 2+ goals
48%
Macarthur Rams 3+ goals
22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
75%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
40%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)
57%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur Rams at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur Rams attack 1.26 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Macarthur Rams scores more
43%
level
24%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
33%

Macarthur Rams at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Macarthur Rams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
J. Dunn
24'
E. Gonzalez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Macarthur Rams 2–0 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Macarthur Rams beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Dunn (2'), E. Gonzalez (24').

The match was played at Lynwood Park in St Helens Park.