Macara 1–0 Vargas Torres: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vargas Torres

5/26/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 11Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Macara54%

×Draw28%

Vargas Torres18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.64

Macara

1.34

Vargas Torres

0.64

Macara creates 109% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

1.39

creates per match

0.60

0.67

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Macara

1.39

Vargas Torres

0.60

allows per match

Macara

0.67

Vargas Torres

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Macara or draw

82%

Macara or Vargas Torres

72%

Draw or Vargas Torres

46%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

26%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

74%

Macara 2+ goals

39%

Macara 3+ goals

15%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

47%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

14%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

75%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.39 + Vargas Torres defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vargas Torres attack 0.60 + Macara defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Macara scores more

54%

level

28%

Vargas Torres scores more

18%

Macara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff