Macara vs Manta FC: Preview & Prediction | Liga Pro

Macara

Preview

20:00

Manta FC

9/2/2026

Liga Pro · Round 28Estadio Bellavista

Big match

51%

Macara

model favours

51%26%23%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Macara51%

×Draw26%

Manta FC23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.90

Macara

1.49

Manta FC

0.90

Macara creates 66% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 42 away

1.24

creates per match

0.76

1.03

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Macara

1.24

Manta FC

0.76

allows per match

Macara

1.03

Manta FC

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Macara or draw

77%

Macara or Manta FC

74%

Draw or Manta FC

49%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

26%

Manta FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

77%

Macara 2+ goals

44%

Macara 3+ goals

19%

Manta FC 1+ goals

59%

Manta FC 2+ goals

23%

Manta FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

69%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Manta FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.49

Manta FC attack 0.76 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Macara scores more

51%

level

26%

Manta FC scores more

23%

Macara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
Macara score first in only 24% of matches
Manta FC score first in only 31% of matches
71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Both teams score in only 31% of Manta FC’s matches
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Macara

Defensively solid

Manta FC

Direct / counter-attacking

49%Possession45%

75%Pass accuracy71%

12.7ShotsBiggest gap7.7

1.29xG1.32

MacaraManta FC

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3

Macara

3

Draws

3

Manta FC

Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 78%

1–03–12–21–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Macara

LWWWW

FC

LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macara face Manta FC (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Macara hosting Manta FC. Match starts September 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Macara host Manta FC at Estadio Bellavista.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Macara vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Macara face Manta FC (Liga Pro)