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Macara vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
M. Barrionuevo 54'
7/30/2016Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 24Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Macara54%
×Draw27%
Gualaceo SC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.42
Gualaceo SC
0.72

Macara creates 97% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 112 away

creates per match

Macara
1.46
Gualaceo SC
0.80

allows per match

Macara
0.64
Gualaceo SC
1.37

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Macara or draw
81%
Macara or Gualaceo SC
73%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
46%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
27%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
76%
Macara 2+ goals
41%
Macara 3+ goals
17%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
51%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
16%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
74%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.46 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gualaceo SC attack 0.80 + Macara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Macara scores more
54%
level
27%
Gualaceo SC scores more
19%

Macara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
M. Barrionuevo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Macara 0–1 Gualaceo SC

Gualaceo SC beat Macara 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 30, 2016.

Goals: M. Barrionuevo (54').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato).