Macara 1–0 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gualaceo SC

M. Estrada 5'

5/2/2015

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 11Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Macara53%

×Draw27%

Gualaceo SC19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.73

Macara

1.42

Gualaceo SC

0.73

Macara creates 95% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 118 away

1.46

creates per match

0.82

0.64

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Macara

1.46

Gualaceo SC

0.82

allows per match

Macara

0.64

Gualaceo SC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Macara or draw

81%

Macara or Gualaceo SC

73%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

47%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

27%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

76%

Macara 2+ goals

41%

Macara 3+ goals

17%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

52%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

17%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

74%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.46 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Macara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Macara scores more

53%

level

27%

Gualaceo SC scores more

19%

Macara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Estrada

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff