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Macara vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Macara
Macara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
America de Cali
America de Cali
4/10/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Macara46%
×Draw26%
America de Cali28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.52
America de Cali
1.12

Macara creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Macara
1.67
America de Cali
0.91

allows per match

Macara
1.33
America de Cali
1.36

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Macara or draw
72%
Macara or America de Cali
74%
Draw or America de Cali
54%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
23%
America de Cali wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
78%
Macara 2+ goals
45%
Macara 3+ goals
20%
America de Cali 1+ goals
67%
America de Cali 2+ goals
31%
America de Cali 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
62%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.67 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Macara scores more
46%
level
26%
America de Cali scores more
28%

Macara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macara vs America de Cali

Macara and America de Cali drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.