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Macara vs 9 de Octubre — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
Unknown 42'
F. Callejo 21'
J. Cortez Erazo 61'
9/28/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 32Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Macara50%
×Draw28%
9 de Octubre21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.33
9 de Octubre
0.76

Macara creates 75% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 69 away

creates per match

Macara
1.46
9 de Octubre
0.88

allows per match

Macara
0.64
9 de Octubre
1.20

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

9 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Macara or draw
79%
Macara or 9 de Octubre
72%
Draw or 9 de Octubre
50%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
24%
9 de Octubre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
74%
Macara 2+ goals
38%
Macara 3+ goals
15%
9 de Octubre 1+ goals
53%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
18%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
70%
9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.46 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

9 de Octubre attack 0.88 + Macara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Macara scores more
50%
level
28%
9 de Octubre scores more
21%

Macara at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
F. Callejo
42'
61'
J. Cortez Erazo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Macara 2–1 9 de Octubre

Macara beat 9 de Octubre 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 28, 2023.

Goals: F. Callejo (21'), ? (42'), J. Cortez Erazo (61').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.