Macara 3–2 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Macara

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

9 de Octubre

R. Champang 90+3' (pen)

M. Orlando 34'

R. Calderón 14'

K. Becerra 74'

D. Cabezas 63'

4/10/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 7Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Macara47%

×Draw25%

9 de Octubre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.10

Macara

1.54

9 de Octubre

1.10

Macara creates 40% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 30 away

1.24

creates per match

1.17

1.03

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Macara

1.24

9 de Octubre

1.17

allows per match

Macara

1.03

9 de Octubre

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Macara or draw

73%

Macara or 9 de Octubre

75%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

53%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

24%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

79%

Macara 2+ goals

45%

Macara 3+ goals

20%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

67%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

30%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

64%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

9 de Octubre attack 1.17 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Macara scores more

47%

level

25%

9 de Octubre scores more

27%

Macara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Calderón↳ B. Díaz

18'

Jose Cazares

22'

Blas Diaz

34'

M. Orlando↳ A. Rodríguez

46'

R. Champang← F. Mina

46'

E. Rodríguez← B. Díaz

46'

E. Recalde← L. Romero

46'

D. Cabezas← J. Cortéz

55'

59'

61'

63'

69'

M. Duffard← R. Calderón

69'

J. Santacruz← M. Orlando

74'

K. Becerra↳ D. Cabezas

79'

B. Oña← M. Da Luz

84'

S. Portocarrero← R. Garcés

89'

M. Lucas← D. Luna

90+3'

Ronald Champang

90+1'

José Fajardo

90'

C. Arboleda← T. Valencia

90+3'

R. ChampangPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Macara9

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots8

4Corners2

22Fouls22

Shots

9Total Shots8

5On Target4

4Off Target4

Passing

58%Possession42%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

22Fouls22

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2