Mação 0–4 Myanmar: Result & Stats

Mação

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Myanmar

Min Min Thu 74'

Aung Si Thu 61', 4'

Kyaw Ko Ko 30'

6/13/2017

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 2Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mação29%

×Draw20%

Myanmar51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaçãoExpected goals in this matchMyanmar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.23

Mação

1.66

Myanmar

2.23

Myanmar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

1.71

2.75

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Mação

0.75

Myanmar

1.71

allows per match

Mação

2.75

Myanmar

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mação+0.00on par

Myanmar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mação ↓

Myanmar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mação or draw

49%

Mação or Myanmar

80%

Draw or Myanmar

71%

Winning margin

Mação wins by 2+

14%

Myanmar wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Mação 1+ goals

81%

Mação 2+ goals

49%

Mação 3+ goals

23%

Myanmar 1+ goals

89%

Myanmar 2+ goals

65%

Myanmar 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Mação (draw refunded)

36%

Myanmar (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mação at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Myanmar away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mação attack 0.75 + Myanmar defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Myanmar attack 1.71 + Mação defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mação scores more

29%

level

20%

Myanmar scores more

51%

Myanmar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Myanmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Aung Si Thu

30'

Kyaw Ko Ko

46'

Ho Chi Fong← Kong Cheng Hou

46'

Min Min Thu← Kyaw Ko Ko

61'

Aung Si Thu

62'

Myo Ko Tun← Yan Naing Oo

68'

Lei Kam Hong← Lei Chi Kin

74'

Min Min Thu

80'

Chan Pak Chun← Choi Chan In

85'

Kyaw Zin Lwin← Myo Ko Tun

Mação

Myanmar

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tam Iao San

46'▲Ho Chi Fong←▼Kong Cheng Hou

68'▲Lei Kam Hong←▼Lei Chi Kin

80'▲Chan Pak Chun←▼Choi Chan In

Mação substitutes

FongHongChunSanChongHouUnAmâncioKit

Manager: G. Zeise

46'▲Min Min Thu←▼Kyaw Ko Ko

62'▲Myo Ko Tun←▼Yan Naing Oo

85'▲Kyaw Zin Lwin←▼Myo Ko Tun

Myanmar substitutes

ThuTunLwinAungKyawSithuThangLwinAungMangAungPaing

Asian Cup - Qualification: Mação 0–4 Myanmar

Myanmar beat Mação 4-0 in Asian Cup - Qualification on June 13, 2017.

Goals: Aung Si Thu (4', 61'), Kyaw Ko Ko (30'), Min Min Thu (74').

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.

Mação vs Myanmar — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Asian Cup - Qualification: Mação 0–4 Myanmar