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Maardu vs Pärnu — Esiliiga A 2026

Maardu
Maardu
CANC
16:00
Pärnu
Pärnu
7/28/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Maardu63%
×Draw19%
Pärnu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maardu
2.38
Pärnu
1.19

Maardu creates 100% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 43 away

creates per match

Maardu
2.38
Pärnu
1.12

allows per match

Maardu
1.26
Pärnu
2.37

finishing

Maardu+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maardu ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Maardu or draw
82%
Maardu or Pärnu
81%
Draw or Pärnu
37%

Winning margin

Maardu wins by 2+
41%
Pärnu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maardu 1+ goals
91%
Maardu 2+ goals
68%
Maardu 3+ goals
42%
Pärnu 1+ goals
70%
Pärnu 2+ goals
33%
Pärnu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maardu (draw refunded)
78%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maardu at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maardu attack 2.38 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.38

Pärnu attack 1.12 + Maardu defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Maardu scores more
63%
level
19%
Pärnu scores more
18%

Maardu at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maardu vs Pärnu — Match Preview

Maardu face Pärnu on July 28, 2021 in this Esiliiga A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.