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Maardu vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Esiliiga B 2026

Maardu
Maardu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
5/3/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 9Maardu kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maardu81%
×Draw11%
Läänemaa Haapsalu8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maardu
3.60
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.14

Maardu creates 216% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Maardu
3.56
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.27

allows per match

Maardu
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.65

finishing

Maardu+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maardu ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Maardu or draw
92%
Maardu or Läänemaa Haapsalu
89%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
19%

Winning margin

Maardu wins by 2+
64%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maardu 1+ goals
97%
Maardu 2+ goals
86%
Maardu 3+ goals
67%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
68%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
32%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maardu (draw refunded)
91%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maardu at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maardu attack 3.56 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.60

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Maardu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Maardu scores more
81%
level
11%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
8%

Maardu at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maardu vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

Läänemaa Haapsalu beat Maardu 1-0 in Esiliiga B on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Maardu kunstmuruväljak in Maardu.