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M'saken vs Kosovo U19 — Cup 2019

M'saken
M'saken
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19advanced
6/15/2022CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Olympique de Sousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

M'saken42%
×Draw24%
Kosovo U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

M'saken
1.58
Kosovo U19
1.40

M'saken creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

M'saken
2.57
Kosovo U19
1.80

allows per match

M'saken
1.00
Kosovo U19
0.60

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par
Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

Kosovo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

M'saken or draw
66%
M'saken or Kosovo U19
76%
Draw or Kosovo U19
58%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+
21%
Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals
79%
M'saken 2+ goals
47%
M'saken 3+ goals
21%
Kosovo U19 1+ goals
75%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
41%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)
55%
Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 2.57 + Kosovo U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kosovo U19 attack 1.80 + M'saken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

M'saken scores more
42%
level
24%
Kosovo U19 scores more
34%

M'saken at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Nouioui
33'
H. Laabidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: M'saken 0–2 Kosovo U19

Kosovo U19 beat M'saken 2-0 in Cup on June 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Nouioui (8'), H. Laabidi (33').

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Sousse in Sūsah.