M'saken 0–1 Jendouba Sport: Result & Stats

M'saken

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jendouba Sport

2/18/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Municipal de M'saken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

M'saken40%

×Draw32%

Jendouba Sport28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

M'sakenExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.81

M'saken

1.04

Jendouba Sport

0.81

M'saken creates 28% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

0.98

creates per match

0.86

0.76

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

M'saken

0.98

Jendouba Sport

0.86

allows per match

M'saken

0.76

Jendouba Sport

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

M'saken or draw

72%

M'saken or Jendouba Sport

68%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

60%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+

16%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals

65%

M'saken 2+ goals

28%

M'saken 3+ goals

9%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

56%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

19%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)

59%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 0.98 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + M'saken defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

M'saken scores more

40%

level

32%

Jendouba Sport scores more

28%

M'saken at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff