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M'saken vs ES Zarzis — Ligue 2 2020

M'saken
M'saken
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
M. A. Boukadida 46'
M. H. Romdhane 80'
N. Douihech 64'
M. Jaballah 60' (pen)
M. Mrayhi 45'
12/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade du rugby M'saken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

M'saken33%
×Draw30%
ES Zarzis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

M'saken
0.99
ES Zarzis
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 31 away

creates per match

M'saken
0.98
ES Zarzis
1.39

allows per match

M'saken
0.76
ES Zarzis
1.00

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

M'saken or draw
63%
M'saken or ES Zarzis
70%
Draw or ES Zarzis
67%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+
12%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals
63%
M'saken 2+ goals
26%
M'saken 3+ goals
8%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
66%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
29%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)
47%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 0.98 + ES Zarzis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

ES Zarzis attack 1.39 + M'saken defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

M'saken scores more
33%
level
30%
ES Zarzis scores more
37%

ES Zarzis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Mrayhi
46'
M. A. Boukadida
60'
M. JaballahPenalty
64'
N. Douihech
80'
M. H. Romdhane

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

M'saken 1 – 4 ES Zarzis

ES Zarzis beat M'saken 4-1 in Ligue 2 on December 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Mrayhi (45'), M. A. Boukadida (46'), M. Jaballah (60' pen), N. Douihech (64'), M. H. Romdhane (80').

The match was played at Stade du rugby M'saken in Masakin, Tunisia.