M'saken 3–1 EO Sidi Bouzid: Result & Stats | Cup

M'saken

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

EO Sidi Bouzid

1/10/2026

Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

M'saken70%

×Draw18%

EO Sidi Bouzid12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

M'sakenExpected goals in this matchEO Sidi Bouzid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.83

M'saken

2.29

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.83

M'saken creates 176% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.57

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

M'saken

2.57

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.67

allows per match

M'saken

1.00

EO Sidi Bouzid

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

M'saken or draw

88%

M'saken or EO Sidi Bouzid

82%

Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid

30%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+

46%

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals

90%

M'saken 2+ goals

66%

M'saken 3+ goals

40%

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals

56%

EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals

20%

EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)

85%

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 2.57 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.67 + M'saken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

M'saken scores more

70%

level

18%

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more

12%

M'saken at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff