Mławianka Mława 6–2 Pilica Białobrzegi

Mławianka Mława

FT

6 – 2

Pilica Białobrzegi

10/1/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Mławianka Mława57%

×Draw20%

Pilica Białobrzegi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mławianka MławaExpected goals in this matchPilica Białobrzegi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.40

Mławianka Mława

2.29

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.40

Mławianka Mława creates 64% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

2.15

creates per match

1.13

1.68

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Mławianka Mława

2.15

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.13

allows per match

Mławianka Mława

1.68

Pilica Białobrzegi

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw

77%

Mławianka Mława or Pilica Białobrzegi

80%

Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi

43%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+

36%

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals

90%

Mławianka Mława 2+ goals

66%

Mławianka Mława 3+ goals

40%

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

75%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

41%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)

71%

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.29

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more

57%

level

20%

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

23%

Mławianka Mława at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff